college football conference

Before I get on with this weekend’s college games it’s got to be noted that for the first time in my lifetime. Rice has a better record in football than Notre Dame. Yep that’s right. Rice is better than Notre Dame. While I was watching the D-Backs beat up on the Cubs Wednesday night the Owls were taking on the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi. The Golden Eagles were the choice of many to win Conference USA this season. But after losing to Rice the Golden Eagles are going to have to fight to get back to the.500 mark before they can worry about winning the conference. The Owls won 31-29 holding off a furious fourth quarter from Southern Mississippi in which the Golden Eagles scored 22 points. So let’s hear it for the 1-4 Owls everyone. They’ve got a better record than Notre Dame. And I wonder if is weeping. The 2-2 Coogs are off to Alabama to go up against an Alabama squad that not only was upset last week but which dropped out of the Top 25 Rankings. The Coogs really should have won last week’s game but then again so should’ve Alabama. The Coogs like to play tough out-of-conference games and they usually keep such games close but keeping the game close isn’t the same as winning. Who knows maybe if the Tide win and return to the rankings. Texas A&M will try and steal Nick Saban to replace they stole several years ago. (The story which is not yet online is not very flattering to Coach Fran or to the Aggies.) The is that the players are standing behind Coach Fran. But it’s not the players whose support Coach Fran needs; it’s the boosters. And the boosters haven’t been happy and I doubt that little tip sheet thing has made them happier. The only way Coach Fran keeps the boosters happy this season is to keep beating up on UT come Black Friday. But until they can get to the Horns the Aggies have to play the rest of the Big 12. This week they’re going up against the and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. You Aggie fans can watch this game Saturday night on Fox Sports Southwest at 6:30. But the big game in Texas yep even bigger than my Cougars will be the Red River Showdown up in Dallas. Tenth ranked Oklahoma versus 19th ranked Texas. Both teams were beat last week both in major upsets. But unlike Texas who was embarrassed by a runaway Kansas State victory. Oklahoma lost on a field goal with no time on the clock. Of course. Oklahoma did blow a 17-point lead to get to that spot where Colorado could make that kick. Texas Tech at 4-1 will be hosting Iowa State on Saturday night. For some teams might affect the team but since linebacker Kellen Tillman had also been suspended for last week’s game then this shouldn’t have much of an affect. TCU is journeying up to Wyoming for a Saturday afternoon game and 3-2 Colorado (the giant killer) is venturing down to Waco to take on the 3-2 Baylor Bears. And SMU and TSU are off this week. As for national games. Thursday night found the surprisingly eighth ranked Kentucky Wildcats taking on the 11th ranked South Carolina Gamecocks. But they won’t be surprising much longer as South Carolina beat Kentucky 38-28. And the college football fan with no rooting interests will have several interesting games to follow on Saturday. Number 12 George will be visiting Tennessee. Number 15 Virginia Tech will be visiting number 22 Clemson. And for you who like to watch train wrecks. Notre Dame will be out in Los Angeles taking on UCLA. (I’ve just got to say it again. The Rice Owls have a better record than Notre Dame. You just know Ty Willingham is laughing.) Then comes the big Saturday night games. For the first time in decades. USC is not ABC’s prime time game. That’s right the Trojans have been relegated to Versus (otherwise known as the home of bull riding hockey and the Tour de France) where they’ll be hosting Stanford. The Trojans dropped to number two in the rankings despite a win last week. ESPN 2 will be airing what should be a fun offensive contest as the high-octane offenses of number 20 Cincinnati and number 21 Rutgers meet up at 7:00. ESPN will be airing number 25 Nebraska visiting number 17 Missouri at 8:15. CBS will be getting into the prime time Saturday night college football biz as it broadcasts what should be the best game of the week as number 9 Florida (which lost on a last second field goal last week) goes to Baton Rouge to battle number 1 ranked LSU. That game goes on the air at 7:00. And also airing at 7:00 will be the ABC match-up of number 4 Ohio State going up against number 23 Purdue.

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Before I get on with this weekend’s college games it’s got to be noted that for the first time in my lifetime. Rice has a better record in football than Notre Dame. Yep that’s right. Rice is better than Notre Dame. While I was watching the D-Backs beat up on the Cubs Wednesday night the Owls were taking on the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi. The Golden Eagles were the choice of many to win Conference USA this season. But after losing to Rice the Golden Eagles are going to have to fight to get back to the.500 mark before they can worry about winning the conference. The Owls won 31-29 holding off a furious fourth quarter from Southern Mississippi in which the Golden Eagles scored 22 points. So let’s hear it for the 1-4 Owls everyone. They’ve got a better record than Notre Dame. And I wonder if is weeping. The 2-2 Coogs are off to Alabama to go up against an Alabama squad that not only was upset last week but which dropped out of the Top 25 Rankings. The Coogs really should have won last week’s game but then again so should’ve Alabama. The Coogs like to play tough out-of-conference games and they usually keep such games close but keeping the game close isn’t the same as winning. Who knows maybe if the Tide win and return to the rankings. Texas A&M will try and steal Nick Saban to replace they stole several years ago. (The story which is not yet online is not very flattering to Coach Fran or to the Aggies.) The is that the players are standing behind Coach Fran. But it’s not the players whose support Coach Fran needs; it’s the boosters. And the boosters haven’t been happy and I doubt that little tip sheet thing has made them happier. The only way Coach Fran keeps the boosters happy this season is to keep beating up on UT come Black Friday. But until they can get to the Horns the Aggies have to play the rest of the Big 12. This week they’re going up against the and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. You Aggie fans can watch this game Saturday night on Fox Sports Southwest at 6:30. But the big game in Texas yep even bigger than my Cougars will be the Red River Showdown up in Dallas. Tenth ranked Oklahoma versus 19th ranked Texas. Both teams were beat last week both in major upsets. But unlike Texas who was embarrassed by a runaway Kansas State victory. Oklahoma lost on a field goal with no time on the clock. Of course. Oklahoma did blow a 17-point lead to get to that spot where Colorado could make that kick. Texas Tech at 4-1 will be hosting Iowa State on Saturday night. For some teams might affect the team but since linebacker Kellen Tillman had also been suspended for last week’s game then this shouldn’t have much of an affect. TCU is journeying up to Wyoming for a Saturday afternoon game and 3-2 Colorado (the giant killer) is venturing down to Waco to take on the 3-2 Baylor Bears. And SMU and TSU are off this week. As for national games. Thursday night found the surprisingly eighth ranked Kentucky Wildcats taking on the 11th ranked South Carolina Gamecocks. But they won’t be surprising much longer as South Carolina beat Kentucky 38-28. And the college football fan with no rooting interests will have several interesting games to follow on Saturday. Number 12 George will be visiting Tennessee. Number 15 Virginia Tech will be visiting number 22 Clemson. And for you who like to watch train wrecks. Notre Dame will be out in Los Angeles taking on UCLA. (I’ve just got to say it again. The Rice Owls have a better record than Notre Dame. You just know Ty Willingham is laughing.) Then comes the big Saturday night games. For the first time in decades. USC is not ABC’s prime time game. That’s right the Trojans have been relegated to Versus (otherwise known as the home of bull riding hockey and the Tour de France) where they’ll be hosting Stanford. The Trojans dropped to number two in the rankings despite a win last week. ESPN 2 will be airing what should be a fun offensive contest as the high-octane offenses of number 20 Cincinnati and number 21 Rutgers meet up at 7:00. ESPN will be airing number 25 Nebraska visiting number 17 Missouri at 8:15. CBS will be getting into the prime time Saturday night college football biz as it broadcasts what should be the best game of the week as number 9 Florida (which lost on a last second field goal last week) goes to Baton Rouge to battle number 1 ranked LSU. That game goes on the air at 7:00. And also airing at 7:00 will be the ABC match-up of number 4 Ohio State going up against number 23 Purdue.

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Before I get on with this weekend’s college games it’s got to be noted that for the first time in my lifetime. Rice has a better record in football than Notre Dame. Yep that’s right. Rice is better than Notre Dame. While I was watching the D-Backs beat up on the Cubs Wednesday night the Owls were taking on the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi. The Golden Eagles were the choice of many to win Conference USA this season. But after losing to Rice the Golden Eagles are going to have to fight to get back to the.500 mark before they can worry about winning the conference. The Owls won 31-29 holding off a furious fourth quarter from Southern Mississippi in which the Golden Eagles scored 22 points. So let’s hear it for the 1-4 Owls everyone. They’ve got a better record than Notre Dame. And I wonder if is weeping. The 2-2 Coogs are off to Alabama to go up against an Alabama squad that not only was upset last week but which dropped out of the Top 25 Rankings. The Coogs really should have won last week’s game but then again so should’ve Alabama. The Coogs like to play tough out-of-conference games and they usually keep such games close but keeping the game close isn’t the same as winning. Who knows maybe if the Tide win and return to the rankings. Texas A&M will try and steal Nick Saban to replace they stole several years ago. (The story which is not yet online is not very flattering to Coach Fran or to the Aggies.) The is that the players are standing behind Coach Fran. But it’s not the players whose support Coach Fran needs; it’s the boosters. And the boosters haven’t been happy and I doubt that little tip sheet thing has made them happier. The only way Coach Fran keeps the boosters happy this season is to keep beating up on UT come Black Friday. But until they can get to the Horns the Aggies have to play the rest of the Big 12. This week they’re going up against the and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. You Aggie fans can watch this game Saturday night on Fox Sports Southwest at 6:30. But the big game in Texas yep even bigger than my Cougars will be the Red River Showdown up in Dallas. Tenth ranked Oklahoma versus 19th ranked Texas. Both teams were beat last week both in major upsets. But unlike Texas who was embarrassed by a runaway Kansas State victory. Oklahoma lost on a field goal with no time on the clock. Of course. Oklahoma did blow a 17-point lead to get to that spot where Colorado could make that kick. Texas Tech at 4-1 will be hosting Iowa State on Saturday night. For some teams might affect the team but since linebacker Kellen Tillman had also been suspended for last week’s game then this shouldn’t have much of an affect. TCU is journeying up to Wyoming for a Saturday afternoon game and 3-2 Colorado (the giant killer) is venturing down to Waco to take on the 3-2 Baylor Bears. And SMU and TSU are off this week. As for national games. Thursday night found the surprisingly eighth ranked Kentucky Wildcats taking on the 11th ranked South Carolina Gamecocks. But they won’t be surprising much longer as South Carolina beat Kentucky 38-28. And the college football fan with no rooting interests will have several interesting games to follow on Saturday. Number 12 George will be visiting Tennessee. Number 15 Virginia Tech will be visiting number 22 Clemson. And for you who like to watch train wrecks. Notre Dame will be out in Los Angeles taking on UCLA. (I’ve just got to say it again. The Rice Owls have a better record than Notre Dame. You just know Ty Willingham is laughing.) Then comes the big Saturday night games. For the first time in decades. USC is not ABC’s prime time game. That’s right the Trojans have been relegated to Versus (otherwise known as the home of bull riding hockey and the Tour de France) where they’ll be hosting Stanford. The Trojans dropped to number two in the rankings despite a win last week. ESPN 2 will be airing what should be a fun offensive contest as the high-octane offenses of number 20 Cincinnati and number 21 Rutgers meet up at 7:00. ESPN will be airing number 25 Nebraska visiting number 17 Missouri at 8:15. CBS will be getting into the prime time Saturday night college football biz as it broadcasts what should be the best game of the week as number 9 Florida (which lost on a last second field goal last week) goes to Baton Rouge to battle number 1 ranked LSU. That game goes on the air at 7:00. And also airing at 7:00 will be the ABC match-up of number 4 Ohio State going up against number 23 Purdue.

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DR. BOB typically has 5 or 6 plays on Saturdays... maybe 8 or 9 on a huge day. But I've never seen this many. Caveat emptor!4 Star Selection****UCLA (-20.5) 39 Notre Dame 605:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07UCLA should have won last year’s game against the Irish in South Bend and I doubt that the Bruins will feel sorry for Notre Dame today in a complete mismatch. The Irish finally mustered some offense last week against a sub-par Purdue defense but Notre Dame’s offense has been buried by teams that can put pressure on the quarterback and UCLA can certainly do that. For the season the Irish contend (if you can call it that) has averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per play and UCLA’s solid defensive unit (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) will bring the heat with sack specialist Bruce Davis (16 sacks since last season) and a slew of other blitzing defenders. My math model projects just 3.5 yppl for Notre Dame in this game and that’s with the more effective Evan Sharpley at play for injured freshman Jimmy Clausen (who may actually play making it change surface worse for the Irish attack). Notre Dame does have a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) but UCLA is even better offensively averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. That unit will be blessed with good field lay given to them by their defense and superior special teams and my math model favors the Bruins by 28 points in this game. In addition to the line value UCLA applies to a very strong 93-29-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Bruins compete their best football at home where they are 18-7-2 ATS under coach Dorrell (2-0 ATS this year). I’ll act UCLA in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.3 Star Selection***Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 1609:00 AM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Both of these teams are coming off upset wins but it’s Maryland that applies to a negative 13-40 ATS letdown situation while Georgia Tech applies to a very strong 73-25 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The match-up certainly does advance the Yellow Jackets as their duo of star running backs Tashard Choice and Jonathan Dwyer (combined to run for 762 yards at 5.8 ypr and 11 touchdowns) will move the chains all day long against a Maryland defense that gas allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play this toughen (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an add up defense). The Terrapins do defend the pass well but Georgia Tech won’t undergo to impel too often in this one and Maryland isn’t likely to move the ball by land or by air against a good Yellow Jackets defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average. Georgia Tech is particularly good defending the run (3.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp) so I don’t expect Maryland’s run heavy attack (60% running plays but just add up running the ball) to perform very well in this game. Maryland’s backup quarterback Chris Turner came off the bench measure week for an injured Jordan Steffy and played well against Rutgers but I disbelieve that Turner is much better (if at all better) than Steffy and Maryland’s pass attack is normally very poor. Georgia Tech should also win the battle of field position in this game as their special teams evaluate as one of the best in the nation. Overall my math copy favors the Yellow Jackets by 9 points in this game and the technical analysis favors them as come up. I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and I’ll make them a 2-Star at -3 ½ or -4 points.3 Star Selection***Georgia 34 TENNESSEE (-1.0) 2412:30 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Tennessee has no right being favored in this bet. The Volunteers have been beaten soundly by the only two good teams that they’ve faced losing by 14 points at Cal and by 39 points at Florida and playing this game at home is not going to help. Tennessee has a history of playing poorly against good conference foes in Knoxville under coach Fulmer as the Vols are only 8-23-1 ATS in his advance when hosting a conference foe with a win percentage of.666 or higher including 5-21 ATS when not getting at least 3 points (0- 13 ATS since 2001). Even having last week off isn’t going to help Fulmer as he’s 0-9 ATS in that role after a bye week. Georgia coach Mark Richt meanwhile has a habit of beating good teams on the road and his Bulldogs are now 16-5 ATS on the road when not laying 10 points or more including a straight up win at Alabama a few weeks ago. Georgia is also a much exceed team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs haven’t been great offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Tennessee has been a disaster on defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve been 0.5 yppl worse than average or worse defensively in all 4 of their games this season (compensating for strength of opposing offenses of course). Aside from Cal and Florida averaging a combined 8.0 yppl the Vols also gave up 5.4 yppl at home to Southern Miss and Arkansas State who would feature to average only 4.8 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Tennessee does have a better than average offensive unit (5.7 yppl against teams that would accept 5.3 yppl) and they are a bit better than that now that Eric Ainge has a healthy throwing hand (his broken pinky finger made it tough for him to impel down the field in the first couple of games) but Georgia’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has the advantage in that match-up. My math model favors Georgia by 8 ½ points change surface after adjusting Ainge’s passing numbers to measure year’s level and I’ll take Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 points.3 Star Selection***Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 2405:25 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Florida was caught looking ahead to this game and the Gators paid for that by losing to Auburn. However that upset loss sets the Gators up in a very strong 61-10 ATS situation that has been very good to me over the years. LSU meanwhile applies to a negative 29- 67-1 ATS situation and I certainly don’t mind taking the extra points that is the result of last week’s result. Florida certainly didn’t play that poorly last week as they out- gained Auburn 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yppl which is actually 1.6 yppl exceed than average after compensating for level of opponent and site. LSU meanwhile only out- gained Tulane 5.6 yppl to 3.5 yppl which is only 0.6 yppl better than average when factoring in that Tulane would be out-gained by 1.5 yppl at domiciliate against an average team. So LSU actually played worse last week than Florida so the extra point we’re getting this week is a bit of a gift. LSU has been struggling offensively with Matt Flynn at quarterback as the Tigers have been only 0.5 yppl better than average with Flynn under bear on (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense). Florida’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense) so LSU’s attack with Flynn at quarterback has only a 0.1 yppl edge over Florida’s defense. LSU’s defense has been incredible in allowing just 2.9 yppl in 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit) but Florida has been 2.0 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) so the Tigers also have just a 0.1 yppl favor over the Gators’ offense. These teams are very close from a yards per play perspective and my math copy only favors LSU by 5 ½ points here in Baton Rouge. With a strong situation and line value on our side I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars from +7 to +6 points.3 Star Selection***Nebraska 38 MISSOURI (-7.0) 3706:15 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07I was surprised that Missouri was favored by so much over a good Nebraska team. I realize that Nebraska’s defense has come into question in recent weeks after getting run over by USC and then allowing Ball State to rack up 610 yards at 40 points the next week but Nebraska’s defense is actually better than Missouri’s defense and both teams are pretty close offensively. Nebraska has allowed 5.4 yards per play for the season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team so their defense really isn’t as bad as it looked in those two games. Missouri’s defense however has played worse than average in all 4 of their games this toughen (relative to who and where they were playing) and the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri is slightly better offensively (1.0 yppl better than average compared to Nebraska’s +0.8 yppl offensive rating) but these two teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play basis and Nebraska has the edge in special teams while Missouri has a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall my math model favors Nebraska by 1 ½ points and the Cornhuskers apply to a decent 61-29-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent pointspread failures. I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points (strong opinion at +5 ½ or +5 points.2 Star Selection**MICHIGAN ST. (-14.5) 40 Northwestern 1709:00 AM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Northwestern was in a good situation last week against an overrated Michigan team and the Wildcats covered the spread in a 16-28 home loss. Competing on the road against a good Michigan State team is another story and Northwestern looks overmatched in this game. The Wildcats undergo averaged just 5.0 yards per play this toughen (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and that unit will struggle against a solid Spartans’ defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). There is an equally decisive mismatch on the other side of the ball as Michigan State’s balanced attack has been 0.5 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) is likely to move the ball consistently against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an add up team). Northwestern is particularly bad defending the pass (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppp) so Spartans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer should have no trouble moving the chains on 3rd down if his good running backs Ringer (544 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Caulcrick (373 yards at 4.5 ypr) don’t take care of business on 1st and 2nd down. My math model projects a 500 yards to 298 yards advantage for Michigan State and that should result in a win of 20 points or more. I’ll take Michigan express in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 points or less.2 Star Selection**Arizona 31 OREGON ST. (-4.0) 2601:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Arizona’s new pass-heavy Texas Tech style offense has struggled a bit against teams with good pass defenses (BYU and Cal) but quarterback Willie Tuitama torched a mediocre New Mexico pass defense 3 weeks ago (8.2 yards per pass play) and averaged 11.2 yppp in last week’s win over Washington State. Arizona matches up very well with an Oregon State defense that is one of the best in the nation at defending the run (3.0 yards per rushing play allowed) while rating at 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass. The Beavers’ excellent run defense is really going to do them no good against a team that doesn’t care about the running the ball and I expect the Wildcats to move the ball well in this game. Oregon State’s offense ordain undergo a tough time keeping up with feature WR Sammie Straughter now sidelined indefinitely with a kidney injury after carrying the offense for two weeks. Straughter was one of the best receivers in the nation last season (1293 yards at 17.5 ypc) and Oregon State’s inexperienced quarterbacks struggled the first two games with Straughter sitting out for personal reasons. Straughter returned to the starting lineup for weeks 3 and 4 and Oregon State’s offense totaled 1121 yards and 93 points in those two games including racking up 514 yards at 6.4 yards per play against a very good Arizona express defense. Straughter caught 15 passes for 262 yards (17.5 ypc) in those two games but he sat out last week and the Beavers’ go attack went with him (just 3.1 yppp against UCLA). Oregon State is about average in pass offense for the season but the Beavers are 1.3 yppp worse than average in 3 games without Straughter (4.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team). I actually evaluate OSU quarterback Sean Canfield at 0.5 yppp worse than average without Straughter and Canfield continues to throw interceptions at a high rate (11 on 163 passes while backup Moevao has thrown 4 picks). Oregon State’s rushing attack is just barely better than average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average aggroup) and the Beavers are a below average offensive aggroup overall. Oregon State’s only offensive weapon is running back Yvenson Bernard but Bernard has averaged a sub-par 4.5 ypr in his career (4.6 ypr this season) and Arizona is a good defending the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an add up team). Overall Arizona rates at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively so they have an advantage over the OSU attack. Arizona is the better team and I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (strong opinion from +1 to 2 ½). Strong OpinionUtah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 3505:00 PM Pacific. 05-Oct-07Louisville is a tough aggroup to figure as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per compete. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does undergo a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC express. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math copy would advance the Cardinals by 14 ½ points but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% come about of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points. Strong OpinionAUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 1409:30 AM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double- road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt meanwhile is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing exceed. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an add up defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star beat Bet at -7 points or less. Strong OpinionArizona St. (-8.0) 37 WASHINGTON ST. 2301:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07I rated Arizona State as the 6th best team in the nation before the season started and the Sun Devils have not disappointed so far. ASU is 0.8 yards per play exceed than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average aggroup) and the Sun Devils are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.2 yppl to teams that would feature to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Washington State is a decent team rating at 0.6 yppl exceed than add up on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than add up on defense but they are not likely to keep this game within single s. I’ll believe Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take ASU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. Strong OpinionFresno St. 26 NEVADA (-3.5) 2401:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Nevada is a ameliorate 12-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault while Fresno express is only 5-17 ATS in conference road games against teams with a win percentage of.400 or better in 11 seasons under coach Pat forge. Those are the only things keeping me making Fresno a solid Best Bet as the Bulldogs appear to be a much better team than Nevada. Nevada’s offense is certainly good averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team but Fresno has given up just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs held Texas A&M to 4.5 yppl (the Aggies would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team) and they limited a great Oregon offense to 6.6 yppl which is good considering that the Ducks would average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defense. Nevada has been great offensively the last 3 weeks against bad defensive teams but the eat case were held to 185 yards at 3.6 yppl by a mediocre Nebraska defense in week 1 and they could have trouble against Fresno’s good defense too. Fresno State’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average but Nevada is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and has allowed an average of 271 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play in 4 games against teams that would average only 4.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Fresno would love to establish the run and they should be able to in this game. My math model favors Fresno State by 8 ½ points but I decided to use only Nevada’s home game stats since they are so much better at home than they’ve been on the road under coach Ault. Using only Nevada’s home games would still result in the math favoring Fresno by 2 ½ points and I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more despite the negative aggroup trends. Strong OpinionVirginia Tech 20 CLEMSON (-5.5) 2103:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Virginia Tech was expected to be one of the top-10 teams in the nation but their offense has held them back and the Hokies are having a tough time scoring despite great field position bestowed upon them by their defense and special teams. Virginia Tech has averaged only 4.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the attack hasn’t gotten any better in 3 games with freshman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Clemson has a good defense (4.4 yppl allowed) but the Tigers can be run against (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Virginia Tech has a decent rushing attack now that Taylor is adding good yardage from the quarterback position (24 runs for 192 yards). The Hokies’ defense had one horrible game against LSU (599 yards at 8.3 yppl) but they’ve played very well in every other game and held a good North Carolina attack to just 4.4 yppl and 10 points last week. Clemson has a good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) but Virginia Tech’s defense is even better so the Hokies can stay competitive in this game with defense and their great special teams. How good are the Virginia Tech special teams? The Hokies undergo been out-gained 286 yards at 4.6 yppl to 312 yards at 4.6 yppl and are -1 in turnovers yet they’ve out-scored their opponents by 7.6 points per game thanks to their special teams. Clemson has horrible special teams and I expect at least one big special teams play by the Hokies in this game. With last week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech Clemson is now just 11-25-1 ATS as a conference favorite under coach Bowden including 4-17-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of.400 or higher. Virginia Tech meanwhile applies to a 54-10 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Clemson is a much better team from the line of scrimmage but my math model favors the Tigers by just 5 ½ points – so the lie is fair. The situation certainly favors the Hokies and I’ll consider Virginia Tech a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d make Virginia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more. Strong OpinionColorado (-8.5) 33 BAYLOR 1904:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Colorado is coming off a huge upset over Oklahoma and the possible letdown is the only thing keeping me from making the underrated Buffaloes a Best Bet. Colorado’s defense has been outstanding all season allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would add up 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team but the Buffaloes aren’t bad on offense anymore. Colorado has faced a plan full of very good defensive teams (Arizona State. Florida State. Oklahoma) which is why they’ve averaged just 5.0 yppl (with starting quarterback Hawkins in the game). However that 5.0 yppl looks pretty good when you believe that the Buffs have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an add up team. Colorado 31 points against a mediocre Colorado State defense and 42 points against a Miami-Ohio defense that’s a little worse than average so the Buffaloes should score a good number of points against a sub-par Baylor defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppp against an average team. The Bears meanwhile are worse than add up offensively (5.5 yppl with starting QB Szymanski in the bet against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and they’ll have trouble scoring against the stingy Buffaloes’ stop unit. My math copy favors Colorado by 18 points in this game but the Buffaloes do apply to a negative 33-73 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win. That situation is only worth 4 points so there is still overall value in favor of the Buffs and perhaps last season’s 31-34 triple overtime loss to Baylor will keep the Buffaloes from letting down. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 7 points or less. Strong OpinionMIDDLE TENN 23 Virginia (-10.5) 2704:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Virginia is coming off a 44-14 home win over a decent Pitt squad but the Cavailers are simply a different aggroup on the road and I expect them to stumble in this game without any real motivation to play hard. The Cavaliers are 28-12 ATS when motivated by the home crowd but just 12-23 ATS on the road under coach Al Groh. Groh’s team is also 20-11 ATS when motivated by a loss in their previous game and they’re 20-5 ATS with the revenge motive. Playing this game on the road after a win and spread win (with no revenge either) will make it tough for the Cavaliers to play well. In fact. Virginia is 0-16 ATS in their last 16 road games following a game in which they won and covered the spread (0- 14 ATS under Groh) and the Cavaliers also qualify in a very negative 18-73-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Middle Tennessee applies to a solid 77-32-1 ATS domiciliate underdog momentum situation. The situations favoring Middle Tennessee would give the color Raiders a 62.3% chance of covering at a fair line (based on the historical predictability of my situational analysis) but the fair lie in this game is 13 points. With that being the case the Raiders have 55.9% chance of covering at +10 points which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. I’ll consider Middle Tennessee State a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and I’d make Middle Tennessee a Best Bet at +11 points or more. Strong OpinionOhio St. (-7.0) 31 PURDUE 1905:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07Both of these teams are 5-0 but only Ohio express is legit. The Boilermakers’ 5 wins have all come against bad teams that are an average of 11 points worse than average while Ohio State has faced a schedule that is just 2 points worse than add up and proved themselves with a convincing 33-14 win at Washington – a team that nearly beat USC measure week. Purdue’s offense has generated 6.6 yards per play but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and being only 0.6 yppl better than average offensively is not going to cut it against a dominating Ohio State defense that’s yielded just 3.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine for 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Buckeyes also have a significant advantage when they have the ball as they rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with starting play Todd Boeckman under center (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Purdue has been 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively by allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense. The Boilermakers just gave up 433 yards at 5.6 yppl to a horrible Notre Dame attack that has averaged only 3.3 yppl for the season. Ohio State also has an edge in special teams and this looks like a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Ohio State in a 2- Star Best Bet at -5 or less. Strong OpinionRUTGERS (-3.5) 34 Cincinnati 2405:00 PM Pacific. 06-Oct-07The Scarlet Knights let me down last week in their 24-34 loss to Maryland but they did out play the Terrapins 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl (they were -3 in turnover margin) so they weren’t as bad as the advance made them appear to be. Cincinnati meanwhile moved their record to 5-0 and the Bearcats are now +14 in turnover margin for the season which disguises the fact that they are not that much better than an average team. Cincy has averaged 6.5 yppl on offense but they’ve faced teams that would combine to accept 6.1 yppl to an average team and the Bearcats are just average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Cincinnati is not going to be +2.8 turnovers per game going forward and they are going to be to be to beat a Rutgers team that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit). Rutgers didn’t play well last week against a mediocre Maryland team but they are better than Cincinnati and the Scarlet Knights are 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2003. I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less and I’d take Rutgers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.

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What a weekend in college football. "disturb Saturday" came early for fans and it was a perfect function to one of the most anticipated weekends in the 2007 toughen. Rivalry games big-time Top 25 match-ups conference battles - this pass has it all. To show you how big of an impact home-field favor is in college sports. #5 Wisconsin is three point UNDERDOGS to unranked Illinois! Also. #8 Kentucky is 3.5 inform underdogs to #11 South Carolina and #12 Georgia is two point underdogs to unranked Tennessee! - Despite all the upsets. I comfort managed to go 8-5 and was 3-1 in my upset specials. Unfortunately the one upset I missed should ascertain for contradict 5. I picked Stanford over Arizona St. who squeaked out a 41-3 win. I also predicted that Oklahoma St would not adjoin the 28-point move over Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St lost by 36. Other than that though... - I had written measure week. "defense is what will win it for the Bulls on Friday night." Sure enough. USF forced an astounding six turnovers and held Steve Slaton to 54 yards as they pulled out a 21-13 disturb win. If you're a W. V fan don't take the easy way out by saying. "Well if Pat White didn't get cause to be perceived..." Don't kid yourself. USF was the exceed team and Pat color was not his typical self when he was healthy. It was clear to nearly everyone that was unbiased except for announcer Chris Spielman who kept pointing out throughout the air that it was West Virginia who was beating themselves. He should've been mentioning the sticks and speed of the swarming USF defense who kept creating the turnovers. Looks desire my preseason Big East favorite doesn't seem so radical anymore. - Rutgers QB Mike Teel had a solid bet (25-44 for 310 yards. 2 touchdowns. 1 int) in their disturb loss to Maryland but his QB Rating plummeted 48 points. Say goodbye to your (ultra-slim) Heisman chances. If he could've only kept up his 236.65 rating... I anticipate there's always next year. - I wrote in measure week's column. "Illinois is sitting at 3-1 and 1-0 in the conference. This is a huge game for them. In their next four games they host Penn St and Wisconsin travel to Iowa then entertain Michigan. If they can win this one. Champaign will be celebrating Illinois football for the first measure since the 2001 Big Ten Champions." Well they're celebrating. - I should've stuck with my gut on Kansas St. who was coming off a bye week. Never value the advantage of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. - It's sad to see that Colt Brennan and Hawaii's only quality non-conference regular toughen opponent is the season finale at home against Washington who could very come up be 4-8 at the time. measure year they played Alabama. Purdue and Oregon St. The year before that they played USC. Michigan St. and Wisconsin. This is arguably Hawaii's best team and Brennan's senior season and nobody wanted to compete them. It would've been nice to see Colt Brennan in primetime against a top-notch schedule. I guess we'll just undergo to wait for their (BCS?) bowl game. Like I said measure week. UCLA is for real. They just didn't bring it on one Saturday against Utah. Who knows what happened there but nobody is talking about the Bruins anymore. They'll go into their bye week with a victory against Notre Dame and they'll have two weeks to alter for their homecoming upset over Cal on October 20. Meanwhile. Notre Dame had 377 yards passing and POSITIVE 49 yards rushing last week in a 33-19 loss to Purdue! They'll be considered in the BCS picture just for that. Utah has been a hard team to figure out this year. A 38 inform win against then #11 UCLA a 16 point win over Utah St last week but 3 losses to Oregon St.. Air Force and UNLV by a combined score of 19-71. Louisville has been equally hard to figure out. They're defense has been terrible but played well last week against N. C. express. To prove how bad they were defensively against Syracuse two weeks ago a game which they inexplicably lost 38-35. Syracuse has scored 46 points in their other four games combined. all losses. Furthermore. Syracuse had 465 yards of be offense in that game. 423 through the air. In their other four games they've averaged 220.8 be yards per game and 180.5 yards passing per game. Louisville's offense can still advance with anyone in the country as they were expected. I still don't get why Steve Kragthorpe is getting all the accuse. Was Bobby Petrino a defensive mastermind? No. Was Kragthorpe brought in as a defensive instruct? No. In their first 5 games last year. Louisville averaged 44 points per bet. This year - 45.8. They lost 5 starters on defense from last year - 1st aggroup All-American (DT Amobi Okoye) their leading tackler in LB Nate Harris. 2 cornerbacks (William Gay was 1st Team Big East) and 2nd Team Big East FS Brandon Sharp. The finger pointing should be directed at their replacements not at the offensive-minded coach that was brought in. Virginia Tech is currently 113th in the nation in total yards per game. They haven't been on the road since their total collapse at LSU. Tyrod Taylor somehow has a worse QB Rating than Sean Glennon. At least their defense is good (unless they compete LSU). Clemson is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia Tech in which they came into the game averaging 38.3 points per bet and scored a measly 3. It didn't help that attach Buchholz missed four handle goals. He was apparently "tired" from a soccer game the night before. It is tough to displace your leg a few times a bet not to have in mind jog all the way onto the field kick a ball then go all the way back to the break. Virginia Tech in an ugly almost unwatchable game. In many populate's eyes this is the bet that ordain cause who wins the Big 12 North. I don't know about that especially because of Colorado's upset over Oklahoma and Kansas St.'s dominance over Texas but this is a huge bet. The only aggroup that isn't a contender in the North is Iowa St. The other five are going to contend it out until the end. Missouri toughest game of the year was the opener five weeks ago against Illinois a bet in which they won 40-34. Nebraska has looked good offensively at times though I'm still not sold on the decision making (or throwing motion for that be) of Sam Keller but the defense is bad. Missouri isn't doing much exceed and their competition has been far worse. Against Illinois. Ole Miss. Western Michigan and Illinois St.. Missouri has given up 434.5 yards per bet. 275.8 yards through the air. If Nebraska is clicking they'll be able to win a shootout. However like I mentioned earlier never value the favor of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. Kansas is statistically one of the best denfensive teams in the nation giving up 124.0 passing yards per game (3rd). 94.8 rushing yards per game (21st) and 5.8 points per game (1st). Granted they've played Central Michigan. FCS member SE Louisiana. Toledo and Florida International who are a combined 3-16. They are coming off a bye week and you know what I think about bye weeks. However. I'm in the early stages of developing this "bye week" theory. What I found out was that it is important for teams to be tested by good competition before the bye week. Take Rutgers for example. They had climbed from #16 in the nation to #11 despite playing Buffalo. Navy and Norfolk St. Then came the bye week and all of a sudden they have to play 4 quarters against battle-tested Maryland. Result - 34-24 loss. Kansas St has certainly been tested and proven themselves. They outplayed then-#18 Auburn for 55 minutes in the season opener and dominated then-#9 Texas last week coming off a bye week - one in which they were tested (Auburn) going into it. Both of these teams are legit contenders in the wide-open Big 12 North. The measure bring together games against A&M undergo been disasterous for the Cowboys. They botched two extra points last year in their 34-33 overtime loss. Oklahoma St.'s measure move to A&M resulted in a 62-23 pounding. Both teams are coming off fairly easy victories a week after big-time wins. The winner of this bet ordain be in sole possession of 1st place in the Big 12 South ahead of powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma. Sure Cincinnati is in the Top 25 for the first measure since 1976 but their only big surprise was their win at home against 2-3 Oregon St. Their opponents combined records not including their losses to Cincinnati are 7-12. One of the teams they played. SE Missouri St. is a 2-3 FCS team. They haven't even played a conference game yet. Look at the be of their schedule: at Rutgers. Louisville at Pitt bye week at USF. UConn. West Virginia at Syracuse. They'll be favored against UConn and Syracuse but I don't experience about any of the other games. They'll be lucky to get to 8-4. Rutgers has finally been tested - and lost. Now it's Cincinnati's turn. Penn St has lost five straight and four in a row at home to Iowa. They are also coming off two straight losses and went from being ranked #10 two weeks ago to unranked this week. On the plus side they're 3-0 this year at domiciliate. Iowa visits Beaver Stadium for the first time since 2004 a game where they escaped with a 6-4 win. That's not a typo - 6-4. Despite all this. Penn St is 10 point favorites over Iowa who has lost three straight. This game may be the turnaround inform for the team that wins this game. Oregon St is 0-2 in the Pac 10. Arizona is 1-1 but is coming off a big 28 point victory over Washington St. They have averaged over 36 points in each of their last four games. Oregon St has the most stout defense in the Pac 10 against the run allowing only 50.2 yards per bet and a 1.4 add up. Arizona is averaging a pathetic 101.4 yards per game on the ground. Oregon St should be able to cerebrate on the pass and shut down Arizona. I guess that's easier said than done but I'm sure they'll furnish it a shot. This could've been a huge #3 vs. #1 match-up. Instead. Florida dropped to #9 after losing to Auburn. That's not to say this bet isn't huge but it could've been HUGE. LSU's defense is unreal. They're giving up 6.4 points per game (2nd in the nation). 174.6 yards per bet (1st by 23 yards per game) they've given up one touchdown through the air and picked off 10 and they've given up 1.3 yards per displace (1st). Both of their big games (Virginia Tech. South Carolina) have been at home and now they get the Gators at domiciliate. I wouldn't be as confident with the Tigers had it been in "The flood," being that Florida is looking for penalise after measure week's loss but it's at Tiger Stadium. The quarterbacks undergo been taking care of the ball and not taking too many chances. Would you if you had that defense? LSU will be looking to avenge measure year's 23-10 loss to eventual champions Florida. Can you believe that Illinois is favored by 3 points in this bet. They're UNRANKED! Wisconsin has won 14 games in a row and 18 of their last 19. They've won 8 of their measure 11 on the road. AND THEY'RE RANKED #5 IN THE COUNTRY. I said at the beginning of the year that they were one of the most overrated teams in the country - but underdogs at Illinois? That's just crazy. I'm not saying Illinois doesn't have a chance - I wish they act it close - but I don't evaluate they should be favored.

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What a pass in college football. "Upset Saturday" came early for fans and it was a perfect prelude to one of the most anticipated weekends in the 2007 season. Rivalry games big-time Top 25 match-ups conference battles - this weekend has it all. To show you how big of an impact home-field favor is in college sports. #5 Wisconsin is three point UNDERDOGS to unranked Illinois! Also. #8 Kentucky is 3.5 point underdogs to #11 South Carolina and #12 Georgia is two point underdogs to unranked Tennessee! - Despite all the upsets. I comfort managed to go 8-5 and was 3-1 in my upset specials. Unfortunately the one upset I missed should count for negative 5. I picked Stanford over Arizona St. who squeaked out a 41-3 win. I also predicted that Oklahoma St would not cover the 28-point spread over Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St lost by 36. Other than that though... - I had written last week. "defense is what will win it for the Bulls on Friday night." Sure enough. USF forced an astounding six turnovers and held Steve Slaton to 54 yards as they pulled out a 21-13 upset win. If you're a W. V fan don't take the easy way out by saying. "Well if Pat color didn't get cause to be perceived..." Don't kid yourself. USF was the exceed aggroup and Pat White was not his typical self when he was healthy. It was alter to nearly everyone that was unbiased except for announcer Chris Spielman who kept pointing out throughout the air that it was West Virginia who was beating themselves. He should've been mentioning the sticks and go of the swarming USF defense who kept creating the turnovers. Looks desire my preseason Big East favorite doesn't seem so radical anymore. - Rutgers QB Mike Teel had a solid game (25-44 for 310 yards. 2 touchdowns. 1 int) in their upset loss to Maryland but his QB Rating plummeted 48 points. Say goodbye to your (ultra-slim) Heisman chances. If he could've only kept up his 236.65 rating... I anticipate there's always next year. - I wrote in last week's column. "Illinois is sitting at 3-1 and 1-0 in the conference. This is a huge game for them. In their next four games they entertain Penn St and Wisconsin jaunt to Iowa then host Michigan. If they can win this one. Champaign will be celebrating Illinois football for the first measure since the 2001 Big Ten Champions." Well they're celebrating. - I should've stuck with my gut on Kansas St. who was coming off a bye week. Never value the advantage of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. - It's sad to see that Colt Brennan and Hawaii's only quality non-conference regular season opponent is the toughen finale at domiciliate against Washington who could very well be 4-8 at the time. Last year they played Alabama. Purdue and Oregon St. The year before that they played USC. Michigan St. and Wisconsin. This is arguably Hawaii's best aggroup and Brennan's senior toughen and nobody wanted to play them. It would've been nice to see Colt Brennan in primetime against a top-notch program. I guess we'll just have to act for their (BCS?) roll game. Like I said last week. UCLA is for real. They just didn't bring it on one Saturday against Utah. Who knows what happened there but nobody is talking about the Bruins anymore. They'll go into their bye week with a victory against Notre Dame and they'll have two weeks to prepare for their homecoming upset over Cal on October 20. Meanwhile. Notre Dame had 377 yards passing and POSITIVE 49 yards rushing last week in a 33-19 loss to Purdue! They'll be considered in the BCS picture just for that. Utah has been a hard team to figure out this year. A 38 point win against then #11 UCLA a 16 inform win over Utah St measure week but 3 losses to Oregon St.. Air Force and UNLV by a combined score of 19-71. Louisville has been equally hard to evaluate out. They're defense has been terrible but played well measure week against N. C. express. To prove how bad they were defensively against Syracuse two weeks ago a game which they inexplicably lost 38-35. Syracuse has scored 46 points in their other four games combined. all losses. Furthermore. Syracuse had 465 yards of total offense in that bet. 423 through the air. In their other four games they've averaged 220.8 total yards per game and 180.5 yards passing per game. Louisville's offense can still advance with anyone in the country as they were expected. I still don't get why Steve Kragthorpe is getting all the accuse. Was Bobby Petrino a defensive plan? No. Was Kragthorpe brought in as a defensive coach? No. In their first 5 games measure year. Louisville averaged 44 points per bet. This year - 45.8. They lost 5 starters on defense from measure year - 1st Team All-American (DT Amobi Okoye) their leading tackler in LB Nate Harris. 2 cornerbacks (William Gay was 1st aggroup Big East) and 2nd aggroup Big East FS Brandon Sharp. The touch pointing should be directed at their replacements not at the offensive-minded coach that was brought in. Virginia Tech is currently 113th in the nation in be yards per bet. They haven't been on the road since their total change at LSU. Tyrod Taylor somehow has a worse QB Rating than Sean Glennon. At least their defense is good (unless they compete LSU). Clemson is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia Tech in which they came into the game averaging 38.3 points per bet and scored a measly 3. It didn't back up that attach Buchholz missed four field goals. He was apparently "tired" from a soccer bet the night before. It is tough to swing your leg a few times a game not to mention jog all the way onto the field impel a ball then come all the way approve to the break. Virginia Tech in an ugly almost unwatchable game. In many people's eyes this is the bet that will determine who wins the Big 12 North. I don't experience about that especially because of Colorado's upset over Oklahoma and Kansas St.'s dominance over Texas but this is a huge game. The only aggroup that isn't a contender in the North is Iowa St. The other five are going to contend it out until the end. Missouri toughest game of the year was the opener five weeks ago against Illinois a game in which they won 40-34. Nebraska has looked good offensively at times though I'm comfort not sold on the decision making (or throwing communicate for that be) of Sam Keller but the defense is bad. Missouri isn't doing much better and their competition has been far worse. Against Illinois. Ole desire. Western Michigan and Illinois St.. Missouri has given up 434.5 yards per bet. 275.8 yards through the air. If Nebraska is clicking they'll be able to win a shootout. However like I mentioned earlier never underestimate the favor of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. Kansas is statistically one of the best denfensive teams in the nation giving up 124.0 passing yards per game (3rd). 94.8 rushing yards per game (21st) and 5.8 points per game (1st). Granted they've played Central Michigan. FCS member SE Louisiana. Toledo and Florida International who are a combined 3-16. They are coming off a bye week and you know what I think about bye weeks. However. I'm in the early stages of developing this "bye week" theory. What I open out was that it is important for teams to be tested by good competition before the bye week. act Rutgers for example. They had climbed from #16 in the nation to #11 despite playing Buffalo. Navy and Norfolk St. Then came the bye week and all of a sudden they have to play 4 quarters against battle-tested Maryland. Result - 34-24 loss. Kansas St has certainly been tested and proven themselves. They outplayed then-#18 Auburn for 55 minutes in the season opener and dominated then-#9 Texas last week coming off a bye week - one in which they were tested (Auburn) going into it. Both of these teams are legit contenders in the wide-open Big 12 North. The last couple games against A&M have been disasterous for the Cowboys. They botched two extra points last year in their 34-33 overtime loss. Oklahoma St.'s measure trip to A&M resulted in a 62-23 pounding. Both teams are coming off fairly easy victories a week after big-time wins. The winner of this bet ordain be in sole possession of 1st displace in the Big 12 South ahead of powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma. Sure Cincinnati is in the Top 25 for the first measure since 1976 but their only big affect was their win at home against 2-3 Oregon St. Their opponents combined records not including their losses to Cincinnati are 7-12. One of the teams they played. SE Missouri St. is a 2-3 FCS team. They haven't even played a conference game yet. Look at the be of their plan: at Rutgers. Louisville at Pitt bye week at USF. UConn. West Virginia at Syracuse. They'll be favored against UConn and Syracuse but I don't experience about any of the other games. They'll be lucky to get to 8-4. Rutgers has finally been tested - and lost. Now it's Cincinnati's turn. Penn St has lost five straight and four in a row at home to Iowa. They are also coming off two straight losses and went from being ranked #10 two weeks ago to unranked this week. On the plus side they're 3-0 this year at home. Iowa visits Beaver Stadium for the first time since 2004 a game where they escaped with a 6-4 win. That's not a typo - 6-4. Despite all this. Penn St is 10 point favorites over Iowa who has lost three straight. This bet may be the turnaround point for the aggroup that wins this game. Oregon St is 0-2 in the Pac 10. Arizona is 1-1 but is coming off a big 28 inform victory over Washington St. They undergo averaged over 36 points in each of their last four games. Oregon St has the most stout defense in the Pac 10 against the run allowing only 50.2 yards per game and a 1.4 add up. Arizona is averaging a pathetic 101.4 yards per game on the fasten. Oregon St should be able to focus on the pass and shut drink Arizona. I anticipate that's easier said than done but I'm sure they'll give it a shot. This could've been a huge #3 vs. #1 match-up. Instead. Florida dropped to #9 after losing to Auburn. That's not to say this game isn't huge but it could've been HUGE. LSU's defense is unreal. They're giving up 6.4 points per game (2nd in the nation). 174.6 yards per game (1st by 23 yards per bet) they've given up one touchdown through the air and picked off 10 and they've given up 1.3 yards per carry (1st). Both of their big games (Virginia Tech. South Carolina) have been at domiciliate and now they get the Gators at home. I wouldn't be as confident with the Tigers had it been in "The Swamp," being that Florida is looking for penalise after measure week's loss but it's at Tiger Stadium. The quarterbacks undergo been taking care of the ball and not taking too many chances. Would you if you had that defense? LSU ordain be looking to penalise last year's 23-10 loss to eventual champions Florida. Can you accept that Illinois is favored by 3 points in this game. They're UNRANKED! Wisconsin has won 14 games in a row and 18 of their last 19. They've won 8 of their last 11 on the road. AND THEY'RE RANKED #5 IN THE COUNTRY. I said at the beginning of the year that they were one of the most overrated teams in the country - but underdogs at Illinois? That's just crazy. I'm not saying Illinois doesn't have a chance - I hope they keep it close - but I don't think they should be favored.

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What a weekend in college football. "Upset Saturday" came early for fans and it was a perfect function to one of the most anticipated weekends in the 2007 season. Rivalry games big-time Top 25 match-ups conference battles - this pass has it all. To show you how big of an force home-field advantage is in college sports. #5 Wisconsin is three point UNDERDOGS to unranked Illinois! Also. #8 Kentucky is 3.5 point underdogs to #11 South Carolina and #12 Georgia is two point underdogs to unranked Tennessee! - Despite all the upsets. I still managed to go 8-5 and was 3-1 in my upset specials. Unfortunately the one upset I missed should ascertain for contradict 5. I picked Stanford over Arizona St. who squeaked out a 41-3 win. I also predicted that Oklahoma St would not cover the 28-point spread over Sam Houston St. Sam Houston St lost by 36. Other than that though... - I had written last week. "defense is what will win it for the Bulls on Friday night." Sure enough. USF forced an astounding six turnovers and held Steve Slaton to 54 yards as they pulled out a 21-13 upset win. If you're a W. V fan don't act the easy way out by saying. "come up if Pat White didn't get cause to be perceived..." Don't kid yourself. USF was the exceed aggroup and Pat White was not his typical self when he was healthy. It was clear to nearly everyone that was unbiased except for announcer Chris Spielman who kept pointing out throughout the air that it was West Virginia who was beating themselves. He should've been mentioning the sticks and go of the swarming USF defense who kept creating the turnovers. Looks desire my preseason Big East favorite doesn't seem so radical anymore. - Rutgers QB Mike Teel had a solid game (25-44 for 310 yards. 2 touchdowns. 1 int) in their upset loss to Maryland but his QB Rating plummeted 48 points. Say goodbye to your (ultra-slim) Heisman chances. If he could've only kept up his 236.65 rating... I guess there's always next year. - I wrote in last week's column. "Illinois is sitting at 3-1 and 1-0 in the conference. This is a huge bet for them. In their next four games they host Penn St and Wisconsin travel to Iowa then host Michigan. If they can win this one. Champaign will be celebrating Illinois football for the first measure since the 2001 Big Ten Champions." Well they're celebrating. - I should've stuck with my gut on Kansas St. who was coming off a bye week. Never value the favor of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. - It's sad to see that Colt Brennan and Hawaii's only quality non-conference regular season opponent is the season finale at home against Washington who could very well be 4-8 at the time. measure year they played Alabama. Purdue and Oregon St. The year before that they played USC. Michigan St. and Wisconsin. This is arguably Hawaii's best team and Brennan's senior season and nobody wanted to play them. It would've been nice to see Colt Brennan in primetime against a top-notch schedule. I anticipate we'll just have to wait for their (BCS?) roll bet. desire I said last week. UCLA is for real. They just didn't carry it on one Saturday against Utah. Who knows what happened there but nobody is talking about the Bruins anymore. They'll go into their bye week with a victory against Notre Dame and they'll undergo two weeks to prepare for their homecoming upset over Cal on October 20. Meanwhile. Notre Dame had 377 yards passing and POSITIVE 49 yards rushing last week in a 33-19 loss to Purdue! They'll be considered in the BCS picture just for that. Utah has been a hard team to figure out this year. A 38 inform win against then #11 UCLA a 16 inform win over Utah St measure week but 3 losses to Oregon St.. Air Force and UNLV by a combined advance of 19-71. Louisville has been equally hard to figure out. They're defense has been terrible but played come up last week against N. C. State. To prove how bad they were defensively against Syracuse two weeks ago a bet which they inexplicably lost 38-35. Syracuse has scored 46 points in their other four games combined. all losses. Furthermore. Syracuse had 465 yards of total offense in that bet. 423 through the air. In their other four games they've averaged 220.8 be yards per bet and 180.5 yards passing per game. Louisville's offense can comfort advance with anyone in the country as they were expected. I comfort don't get why Steve Kragthorpe is getting all the accuse. Was Bobby Petrino a defensive mastermind? No. Was Kragthorpe brought in as a defensive instruct? No. In their first 5 games last year. Louisville averaged 44 points per bet. This year - 45.8. They lost 5 starters on defense from measure year - 1st Team All-American (DT Amobi Okoye) their leading tackler in LB Nate Harris. 2 cornerbacks (William Gay was 1st Team Big East) and 2nd aggroup Big East FS Brandon Sharp. The finger pointing should be directed at their replacements not at the offensive-minded instruct that was brought in. Virginia Tech is currently 113th in the nation in total yards per game. They haven't been on the road since their total collapse at LSU. Tyrod Taylor somehow has a worse QB Rating than Sean Glennon. At least their defense is good (unless they play LSU). Clemson is coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia Tech in which they came into the bet averaging 38.3 points per bet and scored a measly 3. It didn't help that attach Buchholz missed four field goals. He was apparently "tired" from a soccer game the night before. It is tough to swing your leg a few times a game not to mention jog all the way onto the field kick a roll then come all the way approve to the sideline. Virginia Tech in an ugly almost unwatchable game. In many populate's eyes this is the game that will determine who wins the Big 12 North. I don't know about that especially because of Colorado's disturb over Oklahoma and Kansas St.'s dominance over Texas but this is a huge game. The only team that isn't a contender in the North is Iowa St. The other five are going to battle it out until the end. Missouri toughest game of the year was the opener five weeks ago against Illinois a game in which they won 40-34. Nebraska has looked good offensively at times though I'm comfort not sold on the decision making (or throwing communicate for that be) of Sam Keller but the defense is bad. Missouri isn't doing much better and their competition has been far worse. Against Illinois. Ole Miss. Western Michigan and Illinois St.. Missouri has given up 434.5 yards per game. 275.8 yards through the air. If Nebraska is clicking they'll be able to win a shootout. However like I mentioned earlier never value the favor of having an extra week of preparation for a quality opponent. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. Kansas is statistically one of the best denfensive teams in the nation giving up 124.0 passing yards per bet (3rd). 94.8 rushing yards per bet (21st) and 5.8 points per game (1st). Granted they've played Central Michigan. FCS member SE Louisiana. Toledo and Florida International who are a combined 3-16. They are coming off a bye week and you know what I think about bye weeks. However. I'm in the early stages of developing this "bye week" theory. What I found out was that it is important for teams to be tested by good competition before the bye week. Take Rutgers for example. They had climbed from #16 in the nation to #11 despite playing Buffalo. Navy and Norfolk St. Then came the bye week and all of a sudden they have to play 4 quarters against battle-tested Maryland. Result - 34-24 loss. Kansas St has certainly been tested and proven themselves. They outplayed then-#18 Auburn for 55 minutes in the season opener and dominated then-#9 Texas measure week coming off a bye week - one in which they were tested (Auburn) going into it. Both of these teams are legit contenders in the wide-open Big 12 North. The last couple games against A&M have been disasterous for the Cowboys. They botched two extra points last year in their 34-33 overtime loss. Oklahoma St.'s last trip to A&M resulted in a 62-23 pounding. Both teams are coming off fairly easy victories a week after big-time wins. The winner of this bet will be in sole possession of 1st place in the Big 12 South ahead of powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma. Sure Cincinnati is in the Top 25 for the first measure since 1976 but their only big surprise was their win at home against 2-3 Oregon St. Their opponents combined records not including their losses to Cincinnati are 7-12. One of the teams they played. SE Missouri St. is a 2-3 FCS team. They haven't change surface played a conference bet yet. Look at the rest of their plan: at Rutgers. Louisville at Pitt bye week at USF. UConn. West Virginia at Syracuse. They'll be favored against UConn and Syracuse but I don't know about any of the other games. They'll be lucky to get to 8-4. Rutgers has finally been tested - and lost. Now it's Cincinnati's turn. Penn St has lost five straight and four in a row at home to Iowa. They are also coming off two straight losses and went from being ranked #10 two weeks ago to unranked this week. On the plus side they're 3-0 this year at domiciliate. Iowa visits work Stadium for the first time since 2004 a bet where they escaped with a 6-4 win. That's not a typo - 6-4. Despite all this. Penn St is 10 inform favorites over Iowa who has lost three straight. This game may be the turnaround inform for the team that wins this bet. Oregon St is 0-2 in the Pac 10. Arizona is 1-1 but is coming off a big 28 point victory over Washington St. They undergo averaged over 36 points in each of their measure four games. Oregon St has the most stout defense in the Pac 10 against the run allowing only 50.2 yards per bet and a 1.4 average. Arizona is averaging a pathetic 101.4 yards per game on the ground. Oregon St should be able to focus on the go and shut down Arizona. I guess that's easier said than done but I'm sure they'll give it a shot. This could've been a huge #3 vs. #1 match-up. Instead. Florida dropped to #9 after losing to Auburn. That's not to say this game isn't huge but it could've been HUGE. LSU's defense is unreal. They're giving up 6.4 points per bet (2nd in the nation). 174.6 yards per game (1st by 23 yards per bet) they've given up one touchdown through the air and picked off 10 and they've given up 1.3 yards per carry (1st). Both of their big games (Virginia Tech. South Carolina) undergo been at domiciliate and now they get the Gators at home. I wouldn't be as confident with the Tigers had it been in "The Swamp," being that Florida is looking for penalise after measure week's loss but it's at Tiger Stadium. The quarterbacks have been taking care of the ball and not taking too many chances. Would you if you had that defense? LSU will be looking to penalise measure year's 23-10 loss to eventual champions Florida. Can you believe that Illinois is favored by 3 points in this game. They're UNRANKED! Wisconsin has won 14 games in a row and 18 of their measure 19. They've won 8 of their measure 11 on the road. AND THEY'RE RANKED #5 IN THE COUNTRY. I said at the beginning of the year that they were one of the most overrated teams in the country - but underdogs at Illinois? That's just crazy. I'm not saying Illinois doesn't undergo a come about - I wish they keep it change state - but I don't think they should be favored.

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