We’ve seen two game winning field goals go through and one game winning field goal blocked. We’ve seen a short handed team suffocate a high powered offense and a team that has been in D-IA less than a decade go 1 for 1 in bowl games. We’ve seen a botched review cripple a team’s chances to win one relatively easy win and a high scoring heavyweight battle.
Michigan State’s got a thousand yard back in Javon Ringer. He’s got breakaway speed. The Spartans’ running game is not in question. But will QB Brian Hoyer be able to get the ball going through the air? That’s the question. He’s tossed for less than 200 yards 6 times this season. He’s hit the 300 yard plateau only twice. And here’s a stat to think about… Michigan State is 2 and 4 when Ringer runs for over 100 yards. Weird. But true. Hoyer’s got to get it going.
Boston College QB Matt Ryan is a leader. There’s no doubt about that. But his TD/INT ratio stinks. I know he throws the ball almost 50 times a game. But he throws picks. The last time he went a whole game without throwing a pick. South Florida and Wisconsin were still in the national title picture. Early in the year the Eagle defense was able to create some turnovers and give Ryan something to work with. But when the turnovers stopped the losses started. Ryan’s got to move the ball. He’s got RB Andre Callender who can tote the rock well but not enough to scare anybody. In the three losses. Callender ran for a total of 102 yards and 0 TDs.
In the end. I liked Michigan State in this one until I found out two of their defensive weapons. Jonal Saint-Dic and SirDarean Adams won’t be playing.
TCU has been a surprise this season but not because they’ve played well. I’m not sure anybody thought they would finish lower than 3rd in the Mountain West let alone 5th. And on top of that their offense has been less than average. They may want to send thank you cards to bottom dwellers Baylor. SMU and Stanford for providing 3 wins (and even those weren’t easy).
As for bright spots… RB Joseph Turner missed four games in the middle of the season and got less than 10 carries in four of the remaining eight games and still comes in with 587 yards. If they want to take it to Houston they have to hand him the ball. He’s coming off a wild game against San Diego State — 33 carries for 226 yards and 4 TDs. With production like that. QB Andy Dalton won’t have to worry so much about being perfect through the air and should have a little room to run himself. Throw in back up QB Marcus Jackson who can get yards on the ground as well and things could get going for the Horned Frogs’ offense.
For Houston. RB Anthony Aldridge is the man. He’s racked up over 1500 yards on the ground with 14 TDs. As a receiver he put up 424 and 5. Not too shabby — makes life a lot easier for his QB.
The Houston offense ranks 4th in the nation in total offense. But their defense hasn’t always performed up to par. TCU has the opportunity to run the ball wild. If the Horned Frogs can slow down Aldridge they have a very good chance to win the ball game.
Houston coach Art Briles has left for Baylor but that’s not the dealbreaker. The dealbreaker is the departure of his two co-offensive coordinators. The Cougars will be playing with graduate assistants trying to run the show behind secondary coach and interim head coach Chris Thurmond.
The first thing that jumps out at me is the location — San Francisco. How many of the Terps’ fans are going to be there? But Beaver Nation should be much more prevalent. Nothing like having a partisan crowd. We’ll see…
For the Beavers the man is Yvenson Bernard. He’s piled up 1037 yards and 12 TDs in 10 games. He’s definitely the key to the Oregon State offense. While Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao passed the starting QB job back and forth. Bernard has consistently rushed well. He’s had time to heal and he’ll be ready to move the ball against Maryland.
For Maryland. Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball share the workload. And there’s a LOT of workload… Lattimore has carried the rock 206 times and Ball has carried it 172 times. Their yards per carry (3.8 and 4.4) aren’t eye popping but they definitely grind it out.
Oregon State did not get to 8-4 by Bernard’s efforts alone. Both James Rodgers and Matt Sieverson have stepped in to provide solid running in relief.
Connecticut has been a big surprise this year. Honestly who expected them to finish 2nd in the Big East? Thanks to a very loving schedule they’ve got a 10 win season in their sights.
The problem for the Huskies is that if they win against Wake Forest that will be their signature win. Beside a win against then number 10 South Florida. Connecticut hasn’t posted a strong win. They played 7 of 12 at home and 2 away games came at Duke and Pitt. They lost the other 3 away games. With the Demon Deacons being pretty close to home and UConn’s lack of football notoriety the Huskies might as well count this one as another away game.
QB Riley Skinner was the leader on last year’s BCS-reaching team. He hasn’t exactly met expectations this year. But he is the team leader and he’s completed as very respectable 72 percent of his passes. The playmaker on this team is WR Kenneth Moore. He’s caught 87 passes for 899 yards and 5 TDs and he’s run for 318 yards and 3 TDs at 7.8 yards a carry. RB Josh Adams has been solid on the ground with 887 yards and 10 TDs.
For Connecticut. QB Tyler Lorenzen has made it happen. He’s the Huskies leader. He may not be an amazing passer but he can gain yards on the ground and he doesn’t throw picks. He’s had Ronald Brown and Andre Dixon running the ball for a combined 1558 yards and 11 TDs and he himself has 304 yards and 1 TD. If Lorenzen can take care of the ball as well as he has all season the Huskies could pull this one off.
Let’s face it… UCF RB Kevin Smith is in the spotlight. If he can shred the Bulldogs’ defense he should get the props he deserves. If he can’t he’ll be dismissed as a big fish in a non-competitive conference.
If you haven’t heard he rushed for 2448 yards and 29 TDs and caught 21 passes for 230 yards and 1 TD. The only team that held him under 124 yards was South Florida. He ran for 149 yards and 2 TDs against Texas. In the Conference USA title game. Smith ran for 284 yards and 4 TDs. If he needs to carry the ball 40 times he does. If he doesn’t he still picks up yards like a mad man.
The unsung star of the Knights? Kickers Michael Torres. Jake Howard and Robert Batista. 58/59 extra points. 21/23 field goals including 13/14 from 1-39 yards and 8/8 from 40-49 yards. Michael Torres himself chipped in 50/50 PATs and 19/21 FGs.
Mississippi State has faced the tougher competition and they also have signature wins to their name. They were also able to harness Darren McFadden to 88 yards and 0 TDs. That could be bad news for the Knights unless they can get the passing game going.
I can’t say I’m impressed by Penn State’s schedule. Florida International. Notre Dame. Buffalo and Temple comprised the non-conference schedule. Their two wins away from home came against Temple and Indiana. Losses came at Michigan. Michigan State and Illinois. But I guess that’s why they’re not playing on or after New Year’s.
You’ve got to give them credit though. The Nittany Lions only give up 88 rush yards a game. And linebacker Dan Connor is an absolute beast. That poses a problem for the run-minded Aggies. Unless Stephen McGee can reach for a performance equal to his game against Texas. Texas A&M will have to figure out another way to beat Penn State.
If you think about it the odds are against the Aggies. They run the ball — Penn State defends it. Their coach is long gone. And they haven’t won a bowl game since the Galleryfurniture com Bowl in December of 2001.
RBs Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson along with QB Stephen McGee need to at least create some semblance of a rushing offense to create some space for McGee to throw. The Aggies were able to do that against Texas. Then again that was a rivalry game. And we know what happens in rivalry games — just ask West Virginia.
Penn State’s rushing attack isn’t anything to scoff at. They should give the Aggie defense fits. That’s good news for QB Anthony Morelli who hasn’t performed as well as most had hoped. But he’s still got some touch. If he can get some time in the pocket he’ll be okay. So it’s up to RBs Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster to get Texas A&M off balance.
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